Information de reference pour ce titreAccession Number: | 00007529-199404010-00006.
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Institution: | W. L. Chameides and P. S. Kasibhatla, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA.J. Yienger and H. Levy II, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
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Title: | Growth of Continental-Scale Metro-Agro-Plexes, Regional Ozone Pollution, and World Food Production.[Report]
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Source: | Science. 264(5155):74-77, April 1, 1994.
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Abstract: | Three regions of the northern mid-latitudes, the continental-scale metro-agro-plexes, presently dominate global industrial and agricultural productivity. Although these regions cover only 23 percent of the Earth's continents, they account for most of the world's commercial energy consumption, fertilizer use, food-crop production, and food exports. They also account for more than half of the world's atmospheric nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and, as a result, are prone to ground-level ozone (O3) pollution during the summer months. On the basis of a global simulation of atmospheric reactive nitrogen compounds, it is estimated that about 10 to 35 percent of the world's grain production may occur in parts of these regions where ozone pollution may reduce crop yields. Exposure to yield-reducing ozone pollution may triple by 2025 if rising anthropogenic NOx emissions are not abated.
Copyright (C) 1994 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science
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References: | 1. G. D. Ness, in Population-Environment Dynamics: Ideas and Observations, G. D. Ness, W. D. Drake, S. R. Brechin, Eds. (Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1993), pp. 33-56.
2. Agrostat-PC: Production (Computerized Information Series, Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Rome, 1991).
3. 1990 Energy Statistics Yearbook (Bureau of Statistics, United Nations, New York, 1992).
4. Foreign Trade by Commodities (Statistics Directorate, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1993).
5. Other studies have found significant reductions in crop yields in the United States and in the Kanto district of Japan as a result of O3 pollution [6,7].
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12. C. A. Ennis, J. Smith, A. L. Lazrus, Tellus 45B, 40 (1993).
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14. NOy denotes total reactive N and is equal to NOx plus the N-containing products derived from the oxidation of NOx.
15. The GFDL GCTM calculates time-dependent distributions of NOy, NOx, HNO3, and peroxyacetylnitrate with a simplified photochemical scheme and 12 months of 6-hour wind, temperature, and precipitation fields from a parent global circulation model [16,17]. The model has 11 layers in the vertical direction and a horizontal resolution of approximate 265 km. Table 1lists the NOx sources included in our application of the model; the resulting [NOy minus NOx] values generally agree to within 1 sigma SD of daytime averaged observations at a number of continental and remote locations [18-21].
16. P. S. Kasibhatla, H. Levy II, W. J. Moxim, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 7165 (1993).
17. H. Levy II, W. B. Moxim, P. S. Kasibhatla, in The Tropospheric Chemistry of O3 in Polar Regions, H. Niki and K. H. Becker, Eds. (NATO Advanced Study Institute Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1993), vol. 17, pp. 77-88.
18. D. D. Parrish et al., J. Geophys. Res. 98, 2927 (1993).
19. T. Wang, thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta (1992).
20. S. T. Sandholm et al., J. Geophys. Res. 97, 16481 (1992); E. L. Atlas et al., ibid., p. 10449.
21. A. Volz-Thomas et al., in Proceedings of EUROTRAC Symposium '92, P. M. Borrell, Ed. (SPB Academic, The Hague, 1993).
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23. M. Trainer et al., ibid. 98, 2917 (1993).
24. The growing season is defined as November through February for 90 degrees to 23 degrees S, all year for 23 degrees S to 23 degrees N, and May through August for 23 degrees to 90 degrees N.
25. Virtually identical exposure statistics were calculated with the distribution of all food crops summed together on the basis of their caloric content.
26. This estimate does not account for synergistic effects between O3 and other pollutants, such as SO2, or for the fertilizing effects of NOx deposition. Although the synergistic effects of other pollutants may cause larger crop reductions than those estimated here [12], the latter effect is probably negligible. Application rates of N fertilizers to agricultural plots are generally more than 100 kg of N haminus 1 yearminus 1 [2], whereas NOx emissions from fossil fuel combustion and soil emissions in CSMAPs are 10 kg of N haminus 1 yearminus 1 or less Table 1.
27. P. Foster, The World Food Problem (Lynne Rienner, Boulder, CO, 1992); R. L. Naylor, Provisioning the Cities into the 21st Century (Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 1993).
28. Agricultural Statistics 1992 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1992); World Agricultural Production (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Circular Series WAP 8-92, Washington, DC, 1992); additional statistics supplied by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC.
29. E. Mathews, Atlas of Archived Vegetation, Land-Use and Seasonal Albedo Data Sets, NASA Tech. Memo 86199 (Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, New York, 1985).
30. W. A. Kaplan, S. C. Wofsy, M. Keller, J. M. da Costa, J. Geophys. Res. 93, 1389 (1988); P. S. Bakwin et al., ibid. 95, 16755 (1990).
31. E. J. Williams, A. Guenther, F. C. Fehsenfeld, ibid. 97, 7511 (1992); M. F. Shepard, S. Barzetti, D. R. Hastie, Atmos. Environ. 25A, 1961 (1991).
32. Cereal crops are the total of the production of wheat, rice, and coarse grains such as maize, millet, oats, rye, and barley.
33. Cereal production was derived from country-by-country statistics for 1991 [2], except for the United States, Canada, China, and the former Soviet Union, where 1991 statistics at the state or province level were used [28]. These production statistics were geographically disaggregated onto a 1 degree by 1 degree grid with the land use data of Mathews [29] renormalized so that the total cultivated area within a given country did not exceed the value reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization [2].
34. The NOx soil source was estimated for 10 generic biomes (water, ice, desert, tundra, scrubland, grassland, woodland, forest, rainforest, and agricultural lands) and geographically distributed with renormalized land use data [29]. Emissions are assumed to be 0 for water, ice, desert, and scrubland and 3 and 0.5 ng of N per square meter per second for rainforests in the dry and wet seasons, respectively [30]. Emissions for all other biomes are given by A permil exp(0.071 T), where T is temperature (in degrees Celsius) and A (nanograms of N per square meter per second) is a fitting parameter for each biome [31]. For agricultural lands, A is 0. 28(F) during the growing season (where F is the fertilization rate in kilograms of N per hectare per month) [31] and is equal to that for grasslands during the nongrowing season. The fertilizer-induced soil source is the flux obtained with N fertilization rates reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization [2] minus the flux obtained assuming all agricultural lands emit in a manner similar to that of grasslands.
35. D. A. Lashof and D. A. Tirpak, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate (Hemisphere, New York, 1990).
36. H. Levy II, W. J. Moxim, P. S. Kasibhatla, J. A. Logan, in Global Biomass Burning: Atmospheric, Climatic, and Biospheric Implications, J. S. Levine, Ed. (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991), pp. 363-369.
37. P. S. Kasibhatla, Geophys. Res. Lett. 98, 1707 (1993).
38. _____, H. Levy II, W. J. Moxim, W. L. Chameides, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 18631 (1991).
39. This research was supported in part by the NSF under grant ATM-9213643 and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grant NA36GP0250. We thank R. Naylor and J. A. Logan for their helpful comments and suggestions, E. Mathews for supplying the global land use data set, and T. Rocke for supplying crop statistics.
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Language: | English.
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Document Type: | Reports.
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Journal Subset: | Life Sciences. Physical Science & Engineering.
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ISSN: | 0036-8075
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NLM Journal Code: | 0404511, uj7
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